We’ve had the vote for Brexit, and the election of Trump, and now the French election is the new center of attention in European politics. It may not be as widely covered as the politics of 2016, but it’s had a lot of international interest as the looming results seem to get less and less predictable.
When is the French election?
The election will begin on April 23rd, and by May 7th France will have elected its new President.
Who are the candidates for the French election?
The elections are usually a fight for presidency between the conservative Les Republicans and the left-wing Socialist party.
Currently, the leading candidates fighting for office include Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Francois Fillon, Benoit Hamon, and Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Marine Le Pen
Le Pen has drawn a lot of attention to the French election as one of the more popular candidates, and potentially France’s first female president. There’s also the fact that she’s on the far right of the political spectrum, as the leader of the Front National party. Her policies and personality have so far acted in accordance with the increasingly right wing and nationalist politics that we’ve seen across the world over the last year.
She’s openly and strongly against the European Union, as it seems the majority of the UK were when they voted for Brexit. And like Trump, her policies revolve around immigration – which seems to be the go-to at the moment, when looking for solutions to social discontent.
The way the polls are going, it’s likely that Le Pen could make it into the second stage of the election (more on that later in this article).
Francois Fillon
Fillon is another right wing candidate, only this time from the Les Republicains party, so slightly less extreme than Le Pen. Interestingly, he’s also a former president of France, so a familiar face in French politics.
He started out as the favourite presidential candidate, but was soon overtaken by Le Pen. He’s still a fairly popular candidate though, and has the potential to make it to stage 2 of the election.
Like every western politician at the moment, his policies have a strong focus on terrorism, with mention of Islam. He aims to increase security and defense with €100bn that will come from reducing unemployment benefits. He also aims to sack 500,000 people who work for the government.
Fillon is much like Le Pen in his belief that the European Union is useless, but is more focused on reform than ‘Frexit’ or whatever else we might term France’s version of Brexit. He also aims to maintain good relations with the UK and interestingly, with Putin.
Emmanuel Macron
Macron is a character who, like Donald Trump was, is mistrusted by many due to him having less political experience than the other candidates.
Rather than being affiliated with a political party, Macron has his own political movement, ‘En Marche!’ which has been especially popular with the French youth.
He’s a political figure that is recognized by many as a sincere personality, who doesn’t align with either the left or right of the political spectrum. He has instead been labelled a centrist.
His focus is more on the problems at home, with policies to reform education and more positive when it comes to foreign policy. Macron isn’t a believer of Brexit, and nor is he concerned with France following suit.
Despite his lack of a deeply routed political profile, he’s a pretty popular candidate, the second most popular in fact at the moment.
Jean-Luc Melenchon
Despite an increase in right wing attitudes, there are still some lefties out there, and Jean-Luc Melenchon is one of them.
His policies are based on the people of France and their quality of life, hoping to increase minimum wage and set a retirement age of 60 he’s focusing more on the smaller social details than on blaming foreigners for social discontent.
It’s unlikely that he’ll reach the second stage of the election, as he’s one of the least popular candidates.
Benoit Hamon
Another lefty, but more central than Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Unlike the right wing candidates, he’s all for Europe and believes in a universal wage. Albeit it’s an unlikely goal, but at least his heart is in the right place. However, that’s clearly not what the people of France are looking right now, as he is currently one of the least popular candidates.
Who’s the most likely to win at the moment?
The 2017 French election is looking like one of the most unpredictable elections that France has had in decades, so it’s hard to predict the outcome.
France could have its first female president, Marine Le Pen, but there’s no solid prediction on whether Marine Le Pen could take it all the way home.
The latest polls display Marine Le Pen ahead of her other four competitors. However, it’s no landslide – there’s still a tight battle between the leading candidates. In 2002, Marie Le Pen managed to get through the second round, but she lost to Jacques Chirac.
So, how does the election work?
For most elections, the system is conducted in 2 stages. The first stage, kor round, will take place on April 23rd. It consists of any candidate who meets the requirements. The requirements include enough funding for their campaign and the written support of five hundred elected representatives. In the second round, the competition lies between the top two leading candidates. The next president will be whoever gets the majority of votes in the second round.
Unlike countries such as the United States, the French election is decided by the people rather than representatives or elected officials. In fact, France is a representative democracy – so the popular vote will decide the next president. So any French citizen age 18 or older will be able to vote for their candidate.
In the first round, if a candidate ends up with the absolute majority, he or she will immediately be elected as the next president. This has actually never happened in French history, but in 1995 – candidate Charles de Gualle came close with 44%.
The elections are always held on Sundays, and the campaigns usually finish at Friday midnight. Voting stations open at 8am and close at 6pm. In a way, it’s a fairly simple system – and it’s worked for years. The only exception to this system can be referred to as the Alternative Vote or Instant-Runoff Voting. So, instead of voting for one single candidate – the citizens of France can rank the candidates in order of preference. If a candidate receives more than half of these votes, then he or she is declared the winner.
However, the Alternative Vote only occurs when neither candidate secures the majority vote in the second round. In the Instant-Runoff Voting (or Alternative), if none of the candidates receive 50% of the popular vote, then the worst-performing or least popular candidate will be eliminated. Therefore, supporters will have to switch to their second candidate choice.
So to sum up…
As mentioned before, Marine Le Pen seems to be stacking up approval ratings from France. Then there’s the runner-up to consider. Perhaps Emmanuel Macron or Benoit Hamon will face Le Pen in the second round.
Presently, it doesn’t look like Republican candidate Francois Fillon will receive many votes from the French. A corruption scandal involving his wife and children. Apparently, they earned 1 million euros for jobs they were never doing. For now, there hasn’t been any chargers but presidential candidate Fillon doesn’t look under the formal investigation.
But, who’s to deny a surprising outcome? Sometimes, an allegation or evidence of a past affair isn’t enough to throw away candidates’ campaigns. I mean, look at U.S. President Donald Trump. Throughout his campaign, he suffered claims from over a dozen women for rape or sexual assault. The comeback? Although, he didn’t win the popular vote – he still managed to defeat his political opponent and become president.
So, thankfully the French election isn’t that complicated. It’s a simple voting system that’s as democratic as you could hope for, unlike the American electoral college system. And what’s more, it’s worked for years.
I live in the UK, in the country’s most uneventful city, where the most interesting story in the local paper is about banning dressing gowns in supermarkets.
I travel and I write, because surely there are more interesting stories than that to write about and share.
